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August 7, 2014

Ecuador

El Niño Report, August 7, 2014

 

The chance of an El Niño has been reduced from 80% to 65%.

 

Most of the Niño indices decreased toward the end of July 2014.  The above-average subsurface temperatures that were observed near the surface during June (down to 100 meters) are now limited to a thin layer in the top 50 meters, underlain by mainly below-average temperatures.  The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Niño pattern and a return to near-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific indicate El Niño neutral conditions.

 

In addition, computer models have forecast a slight delay in the onset of the El Niño.  They now indicate the onset during July-September 2014 with the event continuing into early 2015.  A strong El Niño is not indicated in any of models, and a slight majority of them call for a weak event rather than a moderate event.  At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during August-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter.  The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.

 

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).  The next El Niño discussion is scheduled for September 4, 2014.  To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly El Niño discussion is released, send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion (a downloadable PDF or Word file).  August 7, 2014.

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